| Abstract: |
| The rapid replacement of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant by Omicron highlights the importance of understanding the interplay between intrinsic transmissibility and immune evasion in multi-strain epidemics. In this talk, we present a novel method for finding bounds on Omicron`s basic reproduction number based on a two-strain SEIR modeling framework. A key finding is that Omicron consistently invaded and replaced Delta across diverse geographic regions within a characteristically short invasion timescale. Through stability analyses and simulations, we demonstrate that this timescale is primarily influenced by the intrinsic characteristics of the two strains, rather than external factors. This theory-driven approach offers a more direct and interpretable estimation of Omicron`s intrinsic transmissibility than traditional data-hungry fitting techniques. |
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